Scientists Discover New Seismic Clue to Predict Mount Etna Eruptions

The discovery of a new seismic indicator through scientific discoveries of Mount Etna, the most active volcano in Europe, is a clue that has the potential to revolutionize eruption prediction. Based on almost 20 years of data on earthquakes, scientists at the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) in Italy found a telltale change in the pattern of earthquakes that indicates the presence of magma in motion. The discovery, recently described in Communications Earth & Environment, can provide the residents with important early warnings during the next eruption of Etna.

Tracking Magma Movements with the b Value

According to the research, there is a statistical indicator known as the b-value that follows the proportion of small and large earthquakes below the volcano. As magma moves upwards, the crust becomes increasingly fractured, generating a spike in small quakes and an increasing b-value.

The ratio decreases exponentially as magma approaches the surface and usually within days of an eruption. Examining seismic records taken between 2005 and 2024, scientists at the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Italy established the presence of specific b-value changes as a result of magma transfer between deep (11 km), intermediate (3-7 km), and shallow (above sea level) magma storage areas under Etna.

From Sicily to the World's Volcanoes

This method was formulated at Etna, but might be useful in predicting other eruptions, anywhere serious seismic data are available. It can be used with satellite and gas monitoring to provide a more comprehensive interpretation of volcanic unrest.

Scientists warn that the system is not predictive, but probable, but it is a significant step towards dependable real-time alerts. To the millions of people who occupy the areas that are close to active volcanoes, that accuracy would one day save lives.