Global Smartphone Market to Grow 1 Percent in 2025, Despite Challenging Economy, Soft Demand: IDC

Global smartphone shipments are now forecast to grow 1 percent in 2025, up from an earlier 0.6 percent projection, according to a market research firm. The positive revision comes after a May downgrade from 2.6 percent due to tariffs, inflation, and weak consumer spending. The latest report cites increasing growth of Apple's iOS and healthy replacement demand as key drivers for the change. Despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges, the firm expects momentum to carry into 2026, signalling resilience in the market amid global uncertainty.

Smartphone Shipments Increase Reportedly Driven by 3.9 Percent iOS Growth

According to a report by IDC, based on data from its Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, worldwide smartphone shipments are expected to rise 1 percent in 2025 to 1.24 billion units, up from the earlier 0.6 percent forecast, primarily driven by 3.9 percent iOS growth.

While falling demand and ongoing economic pressures might have had a negative impact on shipments, replacement demand is set to drive growth into 2026, with a 1.5 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2029. The total market outlook has improved slightly, as US tariff exemptions continue to protect smartphones from added costs.

Tariff volatility continues to add uncertainty, but it reportedly has little impact on most smartphone vendors at the moment. According to Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, OEMs should continue diversifying and expanding production to meet healthy demand across many markets and select segments.

Popal highlighted that smartphone growth in the US at 3.6 percent, the Middle East and Africa at 6.5 percent, and Asia Pacific excluding China at 0.8 percent in 2025 will counterbalance a 1 percent drop in China.

China's projection was lowered from 3 percent year-on-year expansion as government subsidies wind down and economic headwinds continue. Given these varied regional patterns, Popal emphasised that OEMs should concentrate on spotting and seizing these pockets of potential.

The report highlighted that although smartphone shipments are projected to rise by just 1 percent in 2025, the market's value is set to grow more substantially, with a 5 percent year-on-year increase in average selling prices (ASP) and a 6 percent rise in overall revenue.

Instead of chasing volume, manufacturers are concentrating on value creation, channelling investments into slimmer designs, generative AI, foldable formats, and improved camera systems, the report added. This shift toward premiumisation is further encouraged by aggressive marketing campaigns and interest-free financing options, which are making high-end devices easier to afford.

Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, highlighted that generative AI is emerging as a central strategy for vendors aiming to set their products apart by embedding advanced AI capabilities.

IDC anticipates global shipments of GenAI smartphones to surpass 370 million units in 2025, representing about 30 percent of the market, Scarsella added. With broader use cases and rising consumer awareness, on-device GenAI is expected to extend to mid-tier devices, eventually becoming a standard feature and driving its market share beyond 70 percent by 2029.

Francisco Jeronimo, vice president of Client Devices, highlighted that the latest foldable releases from Samsung, Google, Motorola, Honor, and Huawei demonstrate significant progress in both hardware and software, reflecting a category that is quickly evolving and breaking past barriers to wider acceptance. 

According to the report, the foldable market is expected to grow by 6 percent year over year in 2025, up from 4 percent in 2024. Growth is projected to continue with another 6 percent increase in 2026 and an 11 percent rise in 2027.

This acceleration will likely be fueled by rising consumer demand and the introduction of more models that tackle two long-standing challenges, durability and affordability. Despite this momentum, IDC predicts foldables will remain a niche category, accounting for under 3 percent of worldwide smartphone shipments by 2029.