Global Smartphone Shipments to Slightly Shrink in 2026 Due to RAM Shortage, Higher Component Costs: Report

The OnePlus 15 and iQOO 15 are two flagship smartphones that were recently launched in India. These handsets were significantly more expensive than their predecessors, the OnePlus 13 and iQOO 13. Similarly, reports have suggested that Samsung is likely to increase the price of its upcoming Galaxy S26 series phones, which are expected to debut in early 2026. While this might signal an industry-wide trend, various OEMs have been warning that the rising costs of acquiring memory components, like DRAMs, due to AI adoption, are forcing them to increase the price of their devices. Now, a market research firm has revised its earlier estimates to highlight that the global smartphone shipments could shrink next year.

Budget Smartphones Could Be 'Impacted Most Severely'

According to Counterpoint Research's revised Global Smartphone Shipment Tracker and Forecast report, the global smartphone shipments could shrink by 2.1 percent in 2026. The market research firm cites the rising memory shortage and the rising cost of the bill of materials (BoM). Counterpoint Research Director MS Hwang said that budget handsets, priced under $200 (about Rs. 18,000), will be “impacted most severely”.

The BoM costs increased by about 20 percent to 30 percent at the beginning of 2025, according to the market research firm. Meanwhile, the prices of the mid-range and high-end smartphones have already increased by 10 percent and 15 percent, and this trend could continue in the coming months.

In Q2 2026, the research firm estimates that memory prices might rise by an additional 40 percent, which could result in a further increase in the cost of materials by 8 percent or more than 15 percent from the “current elevated levels”.

As more DRAMs get redirected towards fulfilling the generative AI industry's needs, the smartphone industry will feel the pinch. While the price rise will impact all handset makers, the shipment estimates of the “key Chinese OEMs”, including Honor, Oppo, and Vivo, have been revised most significantly.

This comes soon after a report highlighted that OEMs are exploring different ways to reduce input costs to maintain a healthy margin without having to increase the selling price of their phones, as RAM prices continue to rise. Various tech firms are planning to discontinue the 16GB RAM variants, while bringing the 4GB RAM options back to the market.