Bitcoin’s Four-Session Slide Puts $76,000 Support in Focus

Bitcoin traded near Rs. 73.8 lakh on Friday as the cryptocurrency market extended its decline for a fourth session, with traders turning cautious amid weaker institutional demand, elevated derivatives positioning and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Ethereum (ETH) was trading near Rs. 2.36 lakh. Market participants said Bitcoin's failure to hold above $80,000 (roughly Rs. 76.57 lakh) has triggered profit-taking, while weakening spot ETF flows suggest institutional demand has moderated. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin traded near $77,300 (roughly Rs. 74 lakh), and Ethereum traded near $2,470 (roughly Rs. 2.36 lakh).

The world's largest cryptocurrency fell 0.8 percent in the last 24 hours, as per the Gadgets 360 price tracker. Analysts said Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break the $79,000-$80,000 (roughly Rs. 75.61 lakh-Rs. 76.57 lakh) resistance zone, while hotter US Producer Price Index data has strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Markets are now pricing around a 70-74 percent probability of a 25-basis-point hike.

Major altcoins traded with mixed momentum on Friday.

Binance Coin (BNB) was priced around $713.92 (roughly Rs. 68,329), while Solana (SOL) traded near $99.81 (roughly Rs. 9,553). XRP hovered around $1.35 (roughly Rs. 129), while Dogecoin (DOGE) was trading close to $0.08394 (roughly Rs. 8.03).

Institutional Demand Shows Signs Of Moderation

Assessing Bitcoin's positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com, said, “Bitcoin's recent failure to hold above $80,000 (roughly Rs. 76.5 lakh) has triggered some profit-taking. Weakening spot Bitcoin ETF flows also suggest that institutional demand has moderated [...] Macro remains the key driver. Markets are pricing roughly a 70 percent probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike. Meanwhile, Brent crude near $109 (roughly Rs. 10,400) is adding to inflation concerns. The US 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5 percent is also increasing pressure on markets [...] Avoid excessive leverage ahead of CPI and the Fed decision. Staggered entries are preferable to chasing short-term moves.”

Highlighting the impact of inflation and geopolitical tensions, the CoinSwitch Markets Desk said, “BTC slipped below $77,000 (roughly Rs. 73.7 lakh) due to hotter US inflation data and rising Middle East tensions. US producer prices rose 5.4 percent YoY, slightly above expectations, reinforcing concerns that inflation remains sticky. Markets are now pricing in roughly a 74 percent chance of a 25 bps Fed rate hike at the September meeting [...] Attention now shifts to today's CPI report, which could determine whether rate expectations strengthen further or provide some relief to crypto markets.”

Pointing to the selling pressure and changing market structure, Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex, said, “Nearly $190 million (roughly Rs. 1,818 crore) in positions were liquidated within an hour, while oil trading close to $100 (roughly Rs. 9,571) a barrel has added to the inflation fears. Yet Glassnode's sell-side risk ratio remains near record lows, and long-term holders now account for just 47 percent of realised profits, down from 88 percent, pointing to newer buyers driving the selling.”

Overall, analysts said ETF flows have reversed from strong inflows earlier in September to consecutive outflows, while elevated derivatives positioning suggests traders are preparing for greater volatility. Analysts are now watching the $75,700-$76,000 (roughly Rs. 72.4 lakh-Rs. 72.7 lakh) support area, while a sustained move back towards $78,000-$80,000 (roughly Rs. 74.6 lakh-Rs. 76.5 lakh) would be needed to improve Bitcoin's momentum.