Apple 3nm Chip Demand for 2024 to Be Below Expectations Amid Declining iPad, MacBook Demand: Ming-Chi Kuo

Apple's demand for next-generation 3nm chips — for its devices expected to arrive in 2024 — will be lower than market expectations, according to a market analyst. Earlier this month, the Cupertino company unveiled its first smartphone with a 3nm chip, but TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo states that a decline in shipments for the iPad and MacBook in 2023 could lead to the company lowering its demand for the new chips next year. Meanwhile, Qualcomm is also expected to lower its demand for 3nm chips next year, according to the analyst.

This year, shipments for iPad models declined by 22 percent to 48 million units, while the decline for the MacBook was around 30 percent, to 17 million units, Kuo states in a Medium post. The analyst claims that this drop in shipments was because demand related to work from home (WFH) ended, amid reducing appeal for high-end specifications.

As a result, the company's demand for next-generation 3nm chips for 2024 will be below expectations, according to Kuo. The analyst also predicts that ASML (formerly Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography) will cut its EUV equipment shipment prediction for next year by up to 30 percent due to the reduced demand from Apple, Qualcomm, and Samsung.

In addition to Apple, Qualcomm and Samsung are both expected to reduce demand for 3nm chips in 2024, according to Kuo. The Snapdragon chipmaker is said to be impacted due to two smartphone manufacturers opting to use their own chips — Huawei (Kirin) and Samsung (Exynos). The latter's flagship phones for 2024 are tipped to feature an Exynos 2400 chipset in markets outside the US, according to recent reports.

Kuo recently claimed in a blog post that complaints of overheating issues affecting Apple's iPhone 15 Pro models were not related to TSMC's advanced 3nm chip manufacturing technology. Instead, the analyst cited a market survey to state that the overheating issues are likely to be caused by Apple's changes to the thermal design of the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max, which feature a titanium frame unlike their predecessors.