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Gemini Crypto Exchange Aims to Launch Regulated Prediction Market Contracts

Gemini Crypto Exchange Aims to Launch Regulated Prediction Market Contracts

The Winklevoss-led crypto exchange looks to diversify with a bold entry into event-driven trading.

Written by Rahul Dhingra, Edited by David Delima | Updated: 6 November 2025 15:49 IST

Gemini Crypto Exchange Aims to Launch Regulated Prediction Market Contracts

Photo Credit: Unsplash/Jakub Żerdzicki

Gemini seeks CFTC clearance to expand into event-based prediction contracts

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Highlights

Gemini explores diversification through event-driven market products
ICE invests $2 billion in Polymarket amid prediction market boom
Gemini shares fall post-IPO as exchange eyes diversification

Gemini Space Station Inc., the cryptocurrency exchange co-founded by Cameron Winklevoss and Tyler Winklevoss, is planning to launch a suite of prediction market contracts, according to a Bloomberg report. This is the company's most recent attempt to broaden its product line and expand beyond conventional cryptocurrency trading services. The exchange, which went public in September through an upsized initial public offering that raised $433 million (roughly Rs. 38,364 crore) at a $4.4 billion (roughly Rs. 3,89,840 crore) valuation, now seeks to position itself as a major player in the fast-growing prediction market sector.

Gemini Looks to Secure CFTC Nod as Prediction Market Interest Surges

Gemini intends to apply for approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to function as a designated contract market and list contracts that let users purchase or sell the results of actual events, as per a report by Bloomberg. These events could include subjects such as elections, sports results, financial data releases, or major economic developments. Since such event-based instruments resemble gambling or derivatives trading, they are frequently classified as prediction markets and are subject to strict regulations.

Gemini's leadership has reportedly discussed launching these contracts as soon as regulatory approvals are secured. The company's action coincides with an increase in interest in prediction platforms due to a notable increase in trading volumes among current players.

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Kalshi LLC, one of the few CFTC-regulated prediction markets, recently recorded over $1.2 billion (roughly Rs. 1,06,320 crore) in trading volume within a single week. Another prominent example would be Polymarket. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, announced on October 7 that it would invest up to $2 billion (roughly Rs. 1,77,200 crore), valuing Polymarket at approximately $8–$9 billion (roughly Rs. 7,08,800 crore to Rs. 7,97,400 crore).

This decision highlights strong institutional confidence in prediction markets, even as platforms such as Polymarket continue to face scrutiny from regulators in countries including France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore, and Thailand.

Despite the enthusiasm, Gemini's share price has declined since its IPO, placing further pressure on the company to demonstrate viable growth through this new initiative. A major extension of its business strategy and a step towards diversifying its sources of income beyond spot cryptocurrency trading would result from Gemini's successful entry into prediction markets.

This initiative reflects broader interest from financial technology firms exploring event-based markets as an emerging asset class. However, the company's prospects will depend heavily on regulatory approval and its ability to attract sufficient liquidity to compete with more established platforms.

Cryptocurrency is an unregulated digital currency, not a legal tender and subject to market risks. The information provided in the article is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, trading advice or any other advice or recommendation of any sort offered or endorsed by NDTV. NDTV shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any perceived recommendation, forecast or any other information contained in the article.

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Further reading: Gemini Crypto Exchange, Cryptocurrency, Winklevoss twins

Rahul Dhingra

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Rahul Dhingra is a crypto writer at Gadgets 360, where he covers the exciting world of Cryptocurrency, Blockchain, Defi and Web3. Before joining Gadgets 360, he worked as a content specialist for a European-based Crypto Exchange. Rahul loves storytelling, not just through the written word but also through the visual medium. Beyond his professional life, Rahul is a sports fanatic. Whether it’s cricket or football, his passion for the game is contagious. More