Global Smartphone Shipments to Hit Record Low in 2026 Amidst Ongoing Memory Shortage, Prices Expected to Rise: IDC

Surging demand for AI has put heavy pressure on memory supplies in the last few months, leading to a chip shortage in the global market. The International Data Corporation (IDC) has warned that the global smartphone market is likely to shrink this year due to the memory chip shortage. The market research firm says that annual smartphone shipments are also expected to fall to their lowest levels over the past decade. Regions dominated by low-end smartphones are likely to witness the steepest declines. IDC expects the memory prices to stabilise by the middle of 2027, but it believes that the industry will not return to its previous normal.

IDC Warns of Market Consolidation as Prices Rise

In its latest report published on Thursday, IDC says that worldwide smartphone shipments are set to decline 12.9 percent year-on-year (YoY) in 2026 to 1.1 billion units. This decline will reportedly bring the smartphone market to its lowest annual shipment volume in more than a decade.

“The global smartphone market, particularly Android manufacturers, faces a significant threat. Vendors whose business is mainly at the low end of the market are likely to suffer the most. Rising component costs will hit their margins, and they will have no choice but to pass the costs on to end users," said Francisco Jeronimo, Vice President for Worldwide Client Devices at IDC. He added that companies like Apple and Samsung are better positioned to navigate this crisis.

Jeronimo also said that as smaller, budget‑focused Android brands face mounting costs, Apple and Samsung would be capable of withstanding the pressure while also strengthening their positions in the smartphone market and continuing to grow their share.

Nabila Popal, Senior Research Director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said:

“The memory crisis will cause more than a temporary decline; it marks a structural reset of the entire market, fundamentally reshaping long‑term TAM (Total Addressable Market), the vendor landscape, and the product mix.”

She expects industry consolidation, with smaller companies exiting the market and low-end vendors facing a sharp decline in shipments due to tight supply constraints and lower demand at higher price points. She notes that average selling prices (ASP) will rise 14 percent to a record $523 (roughly Rs. 47,000) this year despite a record decline in shipments. 

" While memory prices are projected to stabilise by mid-2027, they are unlikely to return to the previous level — making the sub-$100 (roughly Rs. 9,000) segment permanently uneconomical. In short, there is no return to business as usual for vendors and consumers," Nabila Popal said. 

IDC notes that markets with a high concentration of low-end smartphones will be affected the most. The Middle East and Africa could see the steepest drop at 20.6 percent YoY. China and the Asia Pacific (excluding Japan and China) are expected to decline 10.5 percent and 13.1 percent, respectively.

When the crissi will stabilise by mid-2027, IDC predicts a modest 2 percent recovery that year, followed by a stronger 5.2 percent year-on-year rebound in 2028.