Bitcoin Holds Near $78,000 as Geopolitical Tensions Keep Market Volatile

Bitcoin traded near Rs. 74.3 lakh on Thursday as the cryptocurrency market remained cautious ahead of key US inflation data that could influence expectations around the Federal Reserve's September meeting. Ethereum (ETH) was trading near Rs. 2.3 lakh. Market participants said weaker spot buying, increased Futures and Options positioning, softer ETF demand, and elevated geopolitical tensions are keeping traders cautious. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin traded near $78,300 (roughly Rs. 74.6 lakh), and Ethereum traded near $2,470 (roughly Rs. 2.35 lakh).

The world's largest cryptocurrency fell 1.4 percent in the last 24 hours, as per the Gadgets 360 price tracker. Analysts said Bitcoin briefly moved towards $79,650 (roughly Rs. 75.8 lakh) following a US Treasury debt buyback, but tensions between the US and Iran pushed crude above $100 (roughly Rs. 9,500) and pulled prices back. At the same time, Bitcoin showed some safe-haven characteristics, moving higher alongside gold while global equities came under pressure. 

Major Altcoins Traded With Mixed Momentum on Thursday.

Following Bitcoin's price trajectory, Binance Coin (BNB) was priced around $717 (roughly Rs. 68,300), while Solana (SOL) traded near $101 (roughly Rs. 9,600). XRP hovered around $1.38 (roughly Rs. 132), while Dogecoin (DOGE) was trading close to $0.08 (roughly Rs. 8). 

Bitcoin's Safe-Haven Behaviour Draws Attention

Assessing Bitcoin's positioning ahead of US inflation data, Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com, said, “Spot buying remains relatively weak. Meanwhile, Futures and Options positioning has increased. This suggests traders are preparing for volatility rather than showing strong directional conviction. ETF demand has also cooled after a strong start to September. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $46.6 million (roughly Rs. 4.44 crore) in net outflows on September 8. September 9 also shows net outflows [...] Avoid excessive leverage ahead of CPI. Staggered entries are preferable.”

Highlighting the impact of US Treasury activity and geopolitical tensions, the CoinSwitch Markets Desk said, “The reaction has been relatively muted compared with August, when Treasury buybacks helped drive a stronger BTC rally. Attention now shifts to the US 10-year Treasury yield, which could move above 5 percent if geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns remain elevated.”

Pointing to Bitcoin's changing behaviour during geopolitical shocks, Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex, said, “While global equity markets sold off as US and Iranian forces exchanged strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin moved higher alongside gold, exhibiting behaviour more typical of safe-haven assets. The decoupling from equities, even if temporary, marks a shift in how the market is treating Bitcoin during geopolitical shocks.”

Overall, analysts said Bitcoin's movement near $78,000 (roughly Rs. 74.3 lakh) is being shaped by a combination of upcoming US inflation data, elevated expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, and renewed geopolitical tensions. Analysts are now watching the $77,000-$78,000 (roughly Rs. 73.3 lakh-Rs. 74.3 lakh) area for support, while a move towards $79,700-$80,500 (roughly Rs. 75.9 lakh-Rs. 76.6 lakh) could test the upper end of the current range.