India’s Summer Maximum Temperature to See a Rise of 1.5 Degree Celsius by 2043, Claims New Climate Data

A report titled Climate Change Projections for India (2021–2040) has warned of severe implications for India's climate, economy and food security in the coming decades. The new climate data set was published by Azim Premji University. It outlines potential climate scenarios and urges policymakers, educators, and NGOs to devise strategies that address these challenges effectively. The findings project increases in temperatures, intensified monsoons, and shifts in precipitation patterns, all of which could significantly impact health, agriculture, and rural livelihoods.

Rising Temperatures Across Scenarios

The report predicts that by 2057, India's annual maximum temperature may rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius under a moderate emissions scenario. However, under a high-emissions trajectory, this threshold could be crossed a decade earlier, by 2043.

Low-emission pathways (SSP2-4.5) indicate that 196 districts could see summer maximum temperatures rise by at least 1 degree Celsius, with Leh projected to experience the steepest increase at 1.6 degrees Celsius. Meanwhile, under high emissions (SSP5-8.5), up to 249 districts are expected to witness similar rises, with 17 districts, including Leh, surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius during summers.

Winter minimum temperatures are also projected to increase significantly, with districts like Anjaw in Arunachal Pradesh potentially experiencing a rise of 2.2 degrees Celsius under high emissions.

Shifts in Rainfall and Monsoonal Activity

Precipitation patterns are expected to vary widely. Western states such as Gujarat and Rajasthan may encounter a 20–50 percent rise in annual rainfall, while northeastern states like Arunachal Pradesh could see deficits of up to 15 percent. The southwest monsoon is likely to intensify in western regions, while the northeast monsoon may weaken, potentially exacerbating drought conditions in rain-dependent northeastern states.

Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

The report highlights the potential for food insecurity due to disruptions in monsoons and rising temperatures. Increased heavy rainfall in high-altitude regions like Ladakh could trigger landslides, while drought-like conditions in northeastern areas may threaten rain-fed agriculture.

Coastal districts may face wet-bulb temperatures above 31 degrees Celsius, posing significant health risks. The report serves as a critical resource for shaping India's response to these escalating climate challenges.