Bitcoin’s Push Toward $100,000 Runs Into a Wall of Resistance

Bitcoin bulls are starting to express some doubts after what seemed like an inevitable march toward a record high price of $100,000 loses momentum. “While we're seeing strong institutional buying pressure, particularly from entities like MicroStrategy's continued accumulation strategy, the broader crypto ecosystem is experiencing a diversification of capital flows from both institutional and non-institutional participants,” said Chris Newhouse, director of research at Cumberland Labs.

As Bitcoin's price plateaus, interest is rising in other digital assets, such as second-largest cryptocurrency Ether and XRP, which have lagged the original cryptocurrency during its record price rise after the victory of President-elect Donald Trump. The former president has become a crypto advocate, raising expectations for friendlier US regulation of the often-controversial asset class.

The groups of Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds each posted record monthly net inflows in November, at $6.5 billion and $1.1 billion respectively, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Friday's daily Ether ETF subscriptions also hit an all-time peak.

“After six weeks of positive inflows, we have seen a week of sales and derivative traders are using ETF demand as a macro gauge for direction,” Fadi Aboualfa, head of research at Copper Technologies Ltd., said in a message on Monday. “Early Bitcoin ETF investors might be keen to rebalance their portfolios, having more than doubled their money.”

Options Market

Meanwhile, the crypto options market has seen more downside protection in Bitcoin at later expiries this month while Bitcoin futures have seen moderate leverage, remaining muted after the digital asset topped $99,000, according to data from Coinglass.

“On-chain data point toward active profit realization from traders in the medium-term cohort (traders who bought in the range of 55k-70k), and profit taking has been particularly intense with BTC trading north of 90k,” said Vetle Lunde, head of research at digital-asset research firm K33, citing data from The Bitcoin Lab.

Lunde said that metric is an estimate which tracks on-chain movements of Bitcoin categorized by prices at its last movement. However, it's rare to see such significant concentration within one price cohort, so it points toward that cohort being particularly active at current prices, he said.

The open interest for both Bitcoin options and futures contracts has remained at muted levels after large liquidations amid Bitcoin's rally in recent weeks.

“The market has taken a pause over the last 10 days as Bitcoin sits just under 100k. Vols have compressed slightly into the 64th percentile, whilst Ether holds significantly higher at the 81st,” Wintermute OTC trader Jake Ostrovskis said.

Adding to the market jitters on Monday was a post on X by the blockchain analysis firm Arkham that said around $2 billion worth of Bitcoin forfeited from the former Silk Road website was moved from US government wallets to the Coinbase exchange. Prices often slump when traders speculate that large amounts of Bitcoin may hit the market at once.

Bitcoin was steady at $95,734 as of 9:33 a.m. Tuesday in Singapore. It reached a record high of $99,728 on Nov. 22.

© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.