Rising Satellite Traffic in Low Earth Orbit Sparks Collision Risk Concerns

The Low Earth orbit (LEO) is gradually turning into a highway of satellites and a recent study gives serious warnings to the operators and scientists in space. The study indicates that now satellites must perform collision-avoidance maneuvers more often than ever before, and it is now being called into question whether a large and densely crowded orbital regions are sustainable or safe. The query is: does our near-Earth space atmosphere approach an edge?

Rising Collision Risk

According to a study published in the October issue of the journal Acta Astronautica, between 2019 and early 2025, the share of satellites executing more than ten collision-avoidance maneuvers per month jumped from 0.2 % to 1.4 %, which corresponds to approximately 340 spacecrafts that are routinely performing collision-avoidance maneuvers.

By 2019, approximately 13,700 of LEO (at altitudes below the region of 2,000 km) were cataloged, but by 2025 it had increased to 24,185 objects - a 76 percent increase. It is estimated that the number can increase to 70,000 at the end of the decade, more than five times higher than that of 2019. Areas of altitude of 400-600km and 700-800km are already experiencing noticeable congestion which means that satellites have to manoeuvre over ten times a month.

Implications and Possible Paths Forward

Regular moves put a strain on fuel supply, further complicate the planning of missions, and open the prospect of making errors that might increase the risks of collisions. A severe collision would give rise to new debris, which would cause additional avoidance requirements in a domino manner. The paper proposes more coordinated launches - not into the same orbital slots - and the synchronization of orbital orbits by coordination of the operator.