Will Hurricanes Become Even Stronger as the Planet Warms?

Hurricane Milton, which intensified from a tropical storm on Sunday to a Category 5 hurricane by Monday, is a prime example of how quickly hurricanes can escalate. With sustained winds reaching 180 mph (298 km/h), Milton weakened slightly before potentially making landfall on the Florida coast around 9th or 10th October 2024. This leads to the question: just how powerful can hurricanes get?
There is a theoretical upper limit to hurricane strength, known as maximum potential intensity. While current models place this limit around 200 mph (322 km/h), it's not fixed. As climate change progresses, ocean temperatures are expected to rise, which could push this threshold higher. According to Kerry Emanuel, an atmospheric scientist from MIT, storms exceeding 220 mph may be possible by the end of the century if carbon emissions aren't curtailed.

What Influences Hurricane Power?

Hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean waters. The higher the sea temperature, the more fuel a storm has to intensify. In addition to ocean heat, factors like wind shear and atmospheric conditions play a critical role. For example, too much wind shear can disrupt a hurricane's structure, weakening it.
However, the trend towards stronger storms is undeniable. Research from James Kossin, a retired NOAA climate scientist, suggests that over the past few decades, the proportion of major hurricanes has increased, and more storms are reaching their full potential intensity.

Should There Be a Category 6?

Currently, the Saffir-Simpson scale caps hurricane strength at Category 5, which includes storms with sustained winds over 157 mph. However, some scientists, including Michael Wehner of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, believe a new Category 6 should be introduced for storms exceeding 192 mph