Standard Chartered is very bullish in terms of its forecast for Bitcoin.
Stablecoins to impact US Treasury buying and USD hegemony, Standard Chartered says
Photo Credit: Facebook/ Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered Bank estimates the size of the stablecoin market could surge by about 10-fold to $2 trillion (roughly Rs. 1,71,29,830 crore) within the next three years after the expected passage of US legislation that seeks to provide a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrencies.
That would likely require an extra $1.6 trillion (roughly Rs. 1,37,05,008 crore) in short-term Treasuries to be held in reserve by stablecoin issuers, or the total amount of new T-bills to be sold over that time, analysts at the London-based bank wrote in a report Tuesday. The entire crypto market value is currently estimated at around $2.68 trillion (roughly Rs. 2,29,56,196 crore).
“US legislation on stablecoins — digital assets that are typically pegged to a fiat currency like the USD and designed to reduce price volatility and facilitate transactions — would further legitimise the stablecoin industry,” Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research, and two other strategists, wrote. “This has implications for both US Treasury buying (for reserve purposes) and USD hegemony.”
The additional demand for dollar-denominated assets such as T-bills would likely be a welcomed development for the Trump administration after the US government debt market was roiled in recent weeks by the president's global trade tariffs. The levies have raised concern that investors will demand a higher premium to hold US debt because of the risks of inflation and selling by international holders.
Standard Chartered is among the most crypto-focused mainstream banking organisations. It's also very bullish in terms of its forecast for Bitcoin. The financial services firm estimates that the price could rise to $500,000 (roughly Rs. 4 crore) by the end of 2028. Bitcoin was trading at about $84,000 (roughly Rs. 72 lakh) on Tuesday.
The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, or the GENIUS Act, is a bipartisan bill introduced in early 2025 that creates a regulatory framework for stablecoins in the US. The bill passed a Senate committee vote in March and is moving toward potentially becoming law, Standard Chartered said. Trump has endorsed the bill.
“Assuming that T-bills' share of total UST supply remains unchanged, this would be enough to absorb all of the fresh T-bill issuance planned for the rest of Trump's second term. In terms of supply held, only money-market funds (which currently hold $2.4 trillion or roughly Rs. 2,05,58,652 crore) of the total $6.4 trillion or roughly Rs. 5,48,24,288 crore) of T-bills outstanding) would remain larger holders,” the report said.
Tether Holdings SA, the issuer of the largest stablecoin USDT, is already one of the largest holders of the US Treasury bills. Tether, which profits from the interest earned off the bonds that make up the reserve, said that it earned $13 billion (roughly Rs. 1,11,357 crore) last year.
Increasing demand for Treasuries would act as a “medium-term offset” against the potential threat to dollar hegemony on the back of the tariff concern, the analysts wrote.
President Donald Trump's crypto project World Liberty Financial announced its plans to launch a stablecoin at the end of March. The token, USD1, will be 100 percent backed by short-term US Treasuries, dollar deposits and other cash equivalents, according to World Liberty Financial.
© 2025 Bloomberg LP
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