Global Smartphone SoC Shipments to Decline by 7 Percent in 2026 Amid Rising Memory Costs: Counterpoint

Global smartphone system-on-chip (SoC) shipments could witness a decline in 2026, according to a new Counterpoint report. The analysts have shared their forecast for this year's chipset market, claiming that the rising memory prices could emerge as a major headwind for smartphone brands and impact the shipments of processors. However, it is said that despite the decline, demand for premium smartphones could boost the overall SoC market revenue in this calendar year. Additionally, Apple and Qualcomm are said to benefit the most with the emerging premiumisation trend.

Smartphone SoC Shipments to Take a Hit in 2026

According Counterpoint Research's Global Smartphone SoC Model Shipments and Revenue Tracker, the global smartphone SoC market is expected to witness a period of slowdown with the shipments expected to decline by seven percent year-on-year (YoY). It is said that the rising memory prices driven by the severe RAM shortage will drive this slowdown.

The report claims that the impact of the rising memory component costs will be felt the most in the sub-$150 (roughly Rs. 13,800) segment, where the smartphone shipments could plummet due to shrinking margins. Counterpoint notes that chip foundries and memory suppliers are increasingly prioritising high-margin HBM production to support the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) data centres.

However, exceptions to this headwind will be the brands that have invested in in-house chipset development, such as Samsung, Google, Huawei, and Xiaomi, the report added. However, how long these brands will be able to sustain the component shortage cannot be said for certain.

Despite the downturn, the analysts forecast that the global chipset market will witness double-digit revenue growth in 2026, owing to the emerging premiumisation trend. It is said that consumers are increasingly leaning towards premium smartphones, resulting in higher purchase of flagship or mid-premium chipsets by smartphone brands. One Counterpoint analyst claimed that nearly one in three smartphones in the ongoing year is expected to be priced above $500 (roughly Rs. 46,000).

As part of the premiumisation drive, flagship smartphones in 2026 are said to move from 3nm to 2nm chips. Notably, Samsung is expected to begin mass manufacturing of its 2nm SoC, dubbed the Exynos 2600, soon. Other players are also expected to enter the race soon.

Counterpoint claims that the demand for premium smartphones will benefit Apple and Qualcomm, two companies which already operate in the segment. Additionally, it is said that MediaTek is closing the gap and is likely to make further progress in the premium Android smartphone market. Further, Samsung's premium adoption is also said to be improving, which is aligned with its transition to 2nm chipsets.