Apple may overtake Samsung in global smartphone shipments for the first time in 14 years, as per the forecast.
iPhone 17 is said to have stronger sales in China and the US compared to the iPhone 16 series
Apple is poised to top the list of best-selling smartphones in the global markets in 2025, according to a report by a market research firm. The Cupertino-based tech giant is estimated to have a 19.4 percent market share, overtaking Samsung as the global leader in terms of smartphone shipments. The China-based original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), meanwhile, may have mixed fortunes, with a weakened domestic market, supply-chain issues, and increasing competition throttling their growth.
According to insights shared by market research firm Counterpoint Research in the Smartphone Market Outlook Tracker, the global smartphone shipments are expected to grow 3.3 percent YoY (year-on-year) in 2025. Apple may top this list, with a projection of more than 243 million iPhone shipments, helping it capture a market share of 19.4 percent.
The report claims that iPhone shipments exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, recording a 9 percent YoY growth for the quarter. This has especially been helped by the new iPhone 17 series, which marked a shift in the Cupertino-based tech giant's usual lineup as the company also made adjustments in memory configurations and pricing tiers.
The iPhone 17 sales in the US were 12 percent higher than those of the iPhone 16 series in the US during the first four weeks after launch. In China, the number was even higher, a difference of 18 percent. The forecast for 2025 suggests that Apple will finally overtake Samsung as the global smartphone leader in terms of shipments for the first time in 14 years.
Samsung, meanwhile, is expected to come second with an 18.7 percent market share, translating into a growth of 5 percent YoY. This is attributed to its supply chain absorbing a major chunk of the tariff impact. As per the report, the strategic adjustments made to the Galaxy A-Series, such as stronger specifications and competitive pricing, may help the brand reinforce its momentum in markets like India, Southeast Asia (SEA), and the Middle East and Africa (MEA).
Despite these strong projections, however, Samsung will reportedly fall short of reclaiming its spot as the top global OEM from 2025 through 2029, owing to increasing competition from Chinese OEMs in the mid-lower end segment.
Counterpoint's report also sheds light on a projected turbulent period for Chinese OEMs. As per the market research firm, supply-chain uncertainties continue to pose constraints on expansion. Among the most threatening challenges is a growing shortage of LPDDR4 memory and skyrocketing prices of memory components.
The top four China-based brands, Xiaomi, Transsion Holdings, Vivo, and Oppo, are expected to register a growth of a meagre 1.7 percent YoY. The report suggests that their reliance on overseas markets for future growth may increase, with India, SEA, MEA, and Latin America (LATAM) offering a more visible growth trajectory.
The aforementioned brands are said to be moving away from volume-driven strategies, towards a more value-oriented growth.
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