Smartphone Exports From India Could See a Notable Decline as Iran Conflict Persists: Report

Smartphone exports from India have been steadily increasing in recent years, owing to the government's production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme under the Make in India initiative. Apple, through its contract manufacturers including Foxconn, Tata Electronics, and Pegatron, has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the scheme, reportedly scaling iPhone assembly in the country to nearly 55 million annually. However, the recent flare-up in geopolitical tensions, like the ongoing West Asia conflict, has put India's smartphone exports at risk, according to a report. The smartphone exports to countries in the Gulf region are expected to see a steep decline in the coming weeks.

Smartphone Exports From India Could Reportedly Decline By Up to 25 Percent

Citing analysts, the Japanese business news agency Nikkei Asia reports that smartphones exported from India are expected to decline significantly if the ongoing conflict in West Asia continues. According to preliminary estimates from TechArc (via Nikkei Asia), the total number of handsets shipped from the country could see a decline between 22 percent and 25 percent. This is likely to disrupt “organised shipments and trader-led exports” from India, if the conflict escalates further.

TechArc's Senior Market Analyst Faisal Kawoosa told the news agency that airspace closure and restrictions are forcing organised exports by OEMs to recalibrate supply chains, while “exports by traders will remain badly affected”. The UAE is reportedly a major hub for the smartphones assembled in India, accounting for three to four units of every 10 units shipped to the country.

To highlight the gravity of the situation, the report added that the UAE has retained its position as the second-largest hub for made-in-India phones, valuing about $3.1 billion (roughly Rs. 28,954 crore) in shipments, after the US.

Apple and Other OEMs With a Global Presence Could Be Better Positioned

While bigger players in the market with a global presence are relatively less affected, small and medium-sized traders are reportedly the worst affected by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. For instance, tech giants like the Cupertino-based Apple are reportedly better positioned as they can reroute handset shipments to the region from other manufacturing hubs.

Interestingly, the company has shifted a part of its manufacturing to India, as part of its efforts to lower its dependence on China. A report recently highlighted that Apple assembled about 55 million iPhone units in India in 2025, increasing from 36 million in 2024. This means that iPhone models assembled in the country reportedly account for 25 percent of the total phones produced by the tech giant.