NASA Slightly Raises Odds of Asteroid Hitting the Moon in 2032 After Updated JWST Data

The likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 pummelling into the moon in December 2032 has been increased by new data gathered by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) by NASA. Feared to be the largest Earth impact threat ever detected, the asteroid's odds of striking the Moon are now 4.3 percent, compared with 3.8 percent, as per a NASA release. The update comes after scientists refined its predicted path by nearly 20% using JWST's Near-Infrared Camera. While the asteroid is currently too far to observe from Earth, its May reappearance offered a rare window to recalculate its future orbit.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 Now Deemed Safe as NASA Confirms No Earth Impact Risk in 2032 or Beyond

As per a NASA update and findings led by Andy Rivkin at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, even a direct impact would not disturb the Moon's orbit, Astronomer Pawan Kumar, formerly of the Indian Institute of Astrophysics, agreed the risk is negligible, explaining that debris from such a collision would either remain lunar-bound or disintegrate in Earth's atmosphere. Asteroid 2024 YR4, about the size of a 10-story building, was discovered in December 2023. The flying space rock had a 3.1 percent chance of hitting Earth, the highest probability a big asteroid has ever had of striking the planet.

The asteroid captured world attention early in 2024 when it appeared that it could strike the planet over a wide region that included the Pacific, South America, Africa, and Asia. While NASA dismissed tsunami threats, an airburst over a populated region could have shattered windows and caused minor damage. However, by February 24, after extensive observation, the agency officially ruled out any danger, reducing the Earth impact probability to 0.004%.

Additional telescope data from Chile and Hawaii traced 2024 YR4's origin to the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. It transitioned into a near-Earth orbit over time. The space rock is now beyond visual range but will re-enter telescope visibility in 2028, allowing scientists another opportunity to study its physical characteristics and update trajectory estimates.

Though now deemed safe, the asteroid served as a real-world rehearsal for planetary defense systems. “2024 YR4 is a tailor-made asteroid for planetary defense efforts,” Kumar noted. From initial detection to global communication, the episode provided a full-cycle test of how Earth would react to a genuine asteroid threat, offering invaluable insights for future preparedness.