Bitcoin Holds Near $79,200 as Japan Rate Hike Bets Raise Market Risks

Bitcoin traded near Rs. 74.9 lakh on Tuesday as the cryptocurrency market remained around this level after August's nearly 25 percent rally. Ethereum (ETH) was trading near Rs. 2.3 lakh, while major altcoins showed mixed movement as investors assessed rising macro risks and the possibility of further gains. According to market participants, institutional demand continues to provide support, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording strong inflows through the end of August. However, expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike, rising Japanese bond yields, and renewed US-Iran tensions are keeping risk appetite measured. Bitcoin traded near $79,200 (roughly Rs. 75 lakh), and Ethereum (ETH) was trading near $2,470 (roughly Rs. 2.3 lakh), as per the data by CoinGecko

As per the Gadgets 360 price tracker, the world's largest cryptocurrency gained 0.78 percent in the last 24 hours. Analysts said US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $2.87 billion (roughly Rs. 27,201 crore) in net inflows from August 17 through month-end, while Strategy's purchase of 4,603 BTC for $370 million (roughly Rs. 3,508 crore) has provided additional support. 

Major altcoins traded with mixed momentum on Tuesday.

Binance Coin (BNB) was priced around $692.86 (roughly Rs. 65,690), while Solana (SOL) traded near $103.93 (roughly Rs. 9,854). XRP hovered around $1.38 (roughly Rs. 131), while Dogecoin (DOGE) was trading close to $0.083 (roughly Rs. 7.9), indicating selective participation across major cryptocurrencies.

Japan's Policy Outlook Adds To Investor Caution

Pointing to the risks facing Bitcoin after its strong August performance, Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex, said, “Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks have triggered some profit-taking, while Japan's two-year yield has reached a 31-year high and markets now see an 88 percent chance of a September BOJ hike. A narrower yield gap could unwind yen carry trades, a factor that helped drive Bitcoin's 20 percent fall in August 2024. Historically, strong August gains have often been followed by September declines. Strategy's $370 million (roughly Rs. 3,508 crore) purchase of 4,603 BTC offers some support.”

Highlighting the impact of renewed geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns, the CoinSwitch Markets Desk said, “Renewed US-Iran tensions have pushed oil prices and Treasury yields higher, while expectations of a September Fed rate hike have also increased, keeping risk appetite measured. A sustained move above $80,000 (roughly Rs. 75.8 lakh) would signal that Bitcoin is regaining momentum after its strong August performance.”

Assessing Bitcoin's performance after August's rally and the latest institutional flows, Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com, said, “ETF demand remains supportive overall. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $2.87 billion (roughly Rs. 27,201 crore) in net inflows from August 17 through month-end. However, inflow momentum has cooled from the earlier streak [...] The key pressure remains macro. Markets now price roughly a 65 percent probability of a September Fed rate hike, while Treasury yields and oil prices remain elevated. Attention shifts to the September 4 US jobs report, followed by CPI and the Fed decision later this month. Investors should avoid aggressive leverage and prefer staggered entries.”

Overall, analysts said Bitcoin's ability to remain above the $77,000-$78,000 (roughly Rs. 73.00 lakh-Rs. 73.95 lakh) support zone will be important after its strong August gains, as institutional demand continues to provide underlying support. However, rising Japanese bond yields, higher oil prices and increased expectations of a September Fed rate hike could keep risk appetite under pressure.