Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 on Game Pass Could Add Up to 4 Million New Subscribers to Service, Analysts Say

Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 released on October 25 across PC, PS4, PS5, Xbox One and Xbox Series S/X. The first-person shooter also became the first Call of Duty title in history to be available on Xbox Game Pass on the day of launch. Microsoft expects the addition of Black Ops 6 to Game Pass to drive more subscriptions to its service. Industry analysts have provided an estimate for the growth the company can expect. The newest Call of Duty could reportedly add up to four million new subscribers to Game Pass.

Analysts Expect Black Ops 6 to Boost Game Pass

GamesIndustry.biz talked to several analysts over the likely impact of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 joining Xbox Game Pass day one. Most said the game would add millions of new subscribers to the service, but unit sales of the popular military shooter would consequently take a hit.

According to the report, published last week, Wedbush chief Michael Pachter expects Black Ops 6 to add between three to four million new Game Pass subscribers. However, he also claimed that Game Pass access could lead to up to six million lost sales for the game. This was based on the assumption that 25 percent of Game Pass subscribers would buy the game anyway.

Other analysts also echoed a similar view in the report, but some were more conservative about Call of Duty attracting new players to Microsoft's game subscription service. Ampere's chief games analyst Piers Harding-Rolls said that he expected a 10 percent rise in Game Pass Ultimate subscribers following Black Ops 6 launch. According to him, that increase would include new subscribers and those upgrading from Game Pass Core and Game Pass Standard tiers, which do not come with day one launch for Xbox first-party games.

The analyst told GamesIndustyr.biz that Call of Duty on Game Pass will hurt the game's sales and will initially cost Microsoft, but in-game monetisation opportunities will likely cover a larger audience with Game Pass. “There is no doubt that adding the latest Call of Duty will be expensive, at least initially, for Microsoft. However, Call of Duty is increasingly a live-service game first and foremost that monetises strongly in-game. Microsoft will be trading premium full-game sales in exchange for a bigger audience that can be monetised in-game instead,” he said.

All analysts, however, said that long-term success of bringing Call of Duty to Game Pass would depend on whether Microsoft could keep those players on the subscription service beyond Black Ops 6 launch period, according to the report. A lot of players could end up leaving Game Pass or downgrading their subscription tier after playing Black Ops 6.

Earlier this year, Xbox president Sarah Bond had confirmed that Game Pass had reached 34 million subscribers. Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 will be available on Game Pass Ultimate across Xbox, PC and Cloud.

Microsoft acquired Call of Duty maker Activision-Blizzard late last year in $69 billion deal after a long running regulatory battle with the US' Federal Trade Commission and the UK's Competition and Markets Authority. The company said earlier this year that it would start bringing Activision titles to Game Pass, starting with Diablo IV.