Asteroid 2024 YR4: Earth Safe, but New Data Shows Small 2032 Lunar Impact Risk

In late 2024, asteroid 2024 YR4 received the designation, which triggered headlines after initial estimates provided it with a few-percent potential of striking the Earth in December 2032. Subsequent observations (such as those of NASA, Webb telescope) have since disillusioned any noticeable impact on the Earth. The focus has now been on the Moon: revised information estimated a 4 percent possibility that the asteroid might impact the Moon on that date, though the astronomers emphasised that the risk was low.

Lunar Impact Probability

According to the European Space Agency, the odds of YR4's Moon-impact at roughly 4 percent (96 percent likely to miss). But scientists warn uncertainties remain. One analysis finds ~80 percent chance that further observations will slash this to near zero, though a small (~5 percent) chance exists that it could rise above 30 percent once new data arrive. Webb's limited early-2026 observing windows should refine the asteroid's trajectory. If YR4 did strike the Moon, models suggest it would blast a 0.5–1 km crater and hurl tonnes of debris into space – enough to threaten satellites and even trigger meteor showers visible from Earth.

Tracking and Response

Agencies around the globe are keeping a close eye on YR4's trajectory. Infrared measurements show the rock measures between 53 and 67 meters across. Since Earth isn't in the way, NASA and ESA are looking into how to handle the risk of it hitting the Moon. Some of the suggestions include sending a spacecraft to nudge YR4 off its course or, if necessary, using a nuclear device nearby. But for now, these are just ideas; experts are emphasising the importance of gathering more data and fine-tuning its orbital path before any decisions are made.