Scientists Warn of Inadequate Solar Storm Forecasting: What You Need to Know

Imagine being told a storm is approaching, but you won't know how dangerous it truly is until minutes before impact. That's the reality scientists face with solar storms. Although scientists have improved our ability to monitor coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun and project their arrival at Earth, the most important consideration — the orientation of the storm's magnetic field — remains unknown until the very last minute. This direction, referred to as the Bz component, decides whether the CME will pass by with little influence or cause disturbances to satellites, electricity grids, and GPS systems.

Lack of Early Bz Data Leaves Earth Vulnerable to Solar Storms, Scientists Urge Wider Sun Coverage

As per a report on Space.com, solar physicist Valentín Martínez Pillet emphasised that knowing the Bz value earlier could dramatically improve our ability to prepare. Currently, spacecraft like NASA's ACE and DSCOVR detect Bz only when the CME reaches Lagrange Point 1 (L1), giving us just 15 to 60 minutes' warning. Martínez Pillet predicts it could take 50 years to achieve the forecasting precision we have for Earth's weather unless we expand our view of the Sun with new satellites placed at Lagrange points L4, L5, and L3.

Despite having the scientific models needed, Martínez Pillet argues we lack vital real-time data from different solar perspectives. Most observations currently come from a single vantage point — L1, which limits our predictive ability. Missions like ESA's upcoming Vigil, scheduled for launch in 2031 to L5, aim to fill this gap by detecting the CME's shape and magnetic orientation from the side, potentially giving up to a week's notice.

But decades may be too long to wait. History reminds us of the danger: the 1859 Carrington Event caused telegraph failures, and a near miss in 2012 could have caused trillions in damage if it had struck Earth. In a 2013 paper, Dan Baker of LASP warned that a direct hit would have left the modern world technologically crippled.

Today, tools like the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) and DSCOVR offer continuous solar monitoring, but their limitations emphasise the need to provide broader coverage. “The Sun isn't changing,” Martínez Pillet said. “It's our dependence on technology that's made us more vulnerable.” Until we build the infrastructure to see solar storms before they hit, we may remain dangerously exposed.